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The White House announced today that President Biden is eager to get something in the Senate without experiencing a long and fierce struggle. He will re-nominate Republican Jerome Powell as chairman of the Federal Reserve Board of Governors and will promote Democrat Lyle Brainard to Deputy. Chair. Powell was opposed by some well-known Senate Democrats, but received the support of many Republicans. Brainard does not seem to face opposition from the Democratic Party. Both may win the confirmation of the Senate.

As you might expect, Powell and Brainard both issued thank-you statements for their nomination.

But as you might expect, after they pushed inflation to a three-year high through record-breaking huge money printing and interest rate suppression, fighting inflation suddenly became the top priority in their statement, and then stubbornly eliminated this inflation as a kind of Something that will disappear by itself soon.

Their statement did not mention that this kind of inflation is "temporary" or "temporary", nor did they mention that the Fed needs to be "patient" and wait for it to disappear on its own. But inflation suddenly became a real problem to be solved.

Powell's priority now is to "prevent higher inflation from becoming entrenched," he said:

"The unprecedented economic reopening and the continued impact of the pandemic have led to imbalances in supply and demand, bottlenecks and outbreaks of inflation. We know that high inflation has caused losses to households, especially those who cannot meet the higher costs of necessities such as food, housing, and transportation. Families. We will use our tools to support the economy and a strong labor market and prevent higher inflation from becoming entrenched," he wrote in the statement.

"Other key priorities include..." He said, well, this is the laundry list you would expect, starting with "protecting the resilience and stability of the financial system."

Brainard’s current priority is to "reduce inflation":

"I am committed to making working Americans the core of my work at the Fed. This means reducing inflation when people focus on their jobs and how far their salaries can go," she wrote in the statement.

This looks like the beginning of a U-turn in inflation.

The governor committee has seven positions. One of them is already vacant. One of them will open at the end of this year. One of them may open early next year.

Powell will serve as chairman and Brainard will serve as vice chairman. The Chairman of the Financial Stability Board Randal Quarles has announced that his resignation will take effect at the end of 2021. This opens the second position. The current Vice Chairman Richard Clarida will be replaced by Brainard as Vice Chairman, and he is likely to leave when his term expires in January. This opens up a third position on the seven-person board.

No one knows what the council will look like next year.

But Biden's meeting with Powell and Brainard must have been a farce, and the impact of inflation suddenly rose to the top priority.

Did Biden explain to the couple what bitch inflation is? People become frustrated, restless and very upset because their wages have increased, and some people have been swallowed up by price increases, which hurts the labor force The person who makes a living? Did he say that it is time for Powell and Brainard to put down their giants and do something for these crazy price increases?

Fighting inflation requires a political agreement between the Fed and the White House. When they talk to Americans about fighting inflation, they must be the same. Volcker and Reagan scoffed at this early in Reagan's first term.

Now, fighting inflation will mean ending quantitative easing sooner. So far, due to blatantly ignoring inflation, it has now exceeded 6% as measured by CPI, and the Fed continues its money printing frenzy.

It has just reduced the amount of its asset purchases from 120 billion U.S. dollars in October to 105 billion U.S. dollars in November and 90 billion U.S. dollars in December. But they are still printing money! Therefore, I expect asset purchases to end earlier than the previously announced time frame, until mid-2022.

Fighting inflation means that after the end of quantitative easing, some maturing bonds will be allowed to roll off the balance sheet without being replaced, thus shrinking the balance sheet—similar to the Fed from the end of 2017 to August 2019 Done.

The large-scale quantitative easing wave since March 2020-printing $4.4 trillion in banknotes in 20 months-pushed long-term interest rates down to historical lows and pushed asset prices to historical highs, including in the real estate market, And to help push inflation to the highest level of interest rates within three years.

The end of the quantitative easing policy and subsequent shrinking of the balance sheet will increase long-term interest rates and deplete the prosperity of financial markets.

Fighting inflation means raising short-term interest rates close to the level of inflation, and if inflation does not slow down, raising it above the inflation rate. So we can calculate it.

The 2-year Treasury bond yield rose 7 basis points today to 0.59%, the highest since March 2020. The 10-year Treasury bond yield rose 8 basis points today to 1.63%.

However, the US Treasury bond market is still firmly suppressed by the continuous large-scale quantitative easing policy and the Fed's huge balance sheet. The Fed owns approximately 25% of marketable Treasuries. This is a ruthless bid. You can buy anything. Buy high. And it is not for sale. This is not trading securities. It is creating money (credit) and using these money to absorb securities. This has had a huge impact on the market. Until the Fed exits the market, stops buying, and then begins to sell its balance sheet, long-term yields will not rise significantly.

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I'm pretty sure that inflation is only fluctuating.

The Fed will do nothing, succumb to inflation and sacrifice the U.S. dollar. Raising interest rates is not an option, but the market thinks it is. Let us see what happened.

"Raising interest rates is not an option..."

The 10-year interest rate has not tripled in 15 months. From 0.55% to 1.65%.

I predict that this will be a slow turn of inflation. The super-rich love inflation too much: because it reduces the wages of their employees, their bank liabilities (you and my deposits), their over-leveraged corporate bonds, and so on.

Maybe not a prudent decision, but this Black Friday-I replaced all my old appliances.

After trying to replace the refrigerator for a few months, I felt scared. Through the Black Friday transaction, I changed everything, so I didn't need to buy anything for a long time.

On the other hand, I did get some very good deals, but the delivery time was very long.

I bet that my dollar value will drop drastically in a year, so it’s best to take advantage of the progress.

Everything the Fed has done has been approved by Congress. They will continue to do this until the "coffin corner" no longer works.

"We need to put out this fire! Thank you for helping me put out the fire! Now please wait a moment and let me touch this can of gasoline..."

The arsonist (Powell) told the parole board (Biden)...

It's hard to expect an arsonist to reach out for a fire hose.

It has caused damage to many people. It is impossible to climb out of the predicament that many people have fallen into.

As far as the auto market is concerned, more stimulus payments are needed to maintain the huge loans of 50-90,000 cars already on the books. These loans started underwater and have always maintained this state.

Equity has been borrowed from overvalued houses. Just recently, renters now have to pay rent. When the payment resumes, the good times will come to an abrupt end.

But dealers are happy to reinvest in new cars and long-term to keep debt payments unchanged

When I heard such a lament, I asked the person to show me the muzzle mark of the gun they were holding when they signed the loan document.

People do stupid things without thinking about the consequences. Using HELOC/refi for any reason-except for home repairs-is stupid. However, this is done to "free the frozen capital" to be wasted on shiny trinkets. Then these same people complained that-after they finished cashing out-they were "underwater" at home. It was all the fault of the banker/real estate agent/car dealer/inserting the name of the villain here.

Gee. Who yelled? You are playing with your residence. Have you considered it?

During the last recession, we bought a house for our daughter in Clayton, California. We bought it from the bank because cash was the only way to buy it, and she didn't. The people who previously owned the house borrowed heavily through equity. This is a small ranch built in the 1960s, but the previous owner installed Viking appliances, custom cabinets, high-end bathroom fixtures, hardwood floors, and $50,000 worth of landscaping/hard landscaping. Then they asked the executives to evaluate it, squeezed out more assets, and bought an RV. Then everything failed. He lost his job...and the RV...and the house. A neighbor who is a friend of the former owner would not talk to my daughter because she "exploited" their misfortune. Are we like "WTF"? A little girl even called my daughter "despicable" because she took away her friend's house.

with! ! ! This year, all parents received a large portion of the 2021 tax return, so the tax rebate for many people next spring will be very insignificant, further dragging down the economy.

We are about to withdraw the Fed from the market, just as we withdrew the army from Afghanistan.

The damage has been done. Cheers to Millennials and Gen Z. With the amazing increase in asset costs, the baby boomers put the last knife on our backs. It will take ten years to straighten out. The only asset of our generation that can claim to have been hoarded by Bitcoin Brothers and venture capitalists.

Please stop thinking like an idiot and blame everyone born between the two dates on the calendar for causing all your problems. Many of our baby boomers have also been messed up by the Fed. good luck.

I am a baby boomer, born in 1948. When I retire, I cut down on food and clothing and saved for many years. The idea is to supplement SS and pension with interest. That's all there is to this idea.

However, my 2 children (23 and 26 years old) have owned their own houses for more than 2 years, and still have $0 cc and other useless debts, and they are both married

My mother used to say-the world owes you nothing, so find a job and live within your means

Otherwise my comment is very simple, mils and gen Z – boo hoo

Yes, when the Fed prints trillions of dollars, it is difficult to own homes, which makes it unaffordable for those trying to buy them.

Lol Yes, of course, man, a 21-year-old man owns a free and clean house with no debts? What did Dad buy for them or they won the lottery?

No one without a college degree will not own a house and have no debts at the age of 21. People without a college degree directly own their own houses after graduating from college. You are all shit. Except for wealthy children, no one "made from scratch" before they legally drank alcohol. Lost troll.

He did not say that they owned them "freely and clearly," he said they had no credit card debt. Maybe they bought it at a cheap place.

Does your child skip college and learn a craft?

If a couple missed the payment and the bank drove you out, you would not have your own house.

You rent it and own it and you're in debt. When do people start to think that the housing they live in is not expenses and liabilities?

The baby boomers who are most responsible for screw work are doing well, or much better than well. I am ashamed to be one of them. It's hard to face children. But wearing cheap old jeans and T-shirts and things in my shopping cart will help.

A generation has no choice, no ability to influence membership, and may not have a common background since the 14th century. Stop looking for people who don’t need your action to blame. Start to find out who is really at fault, and then take action.

Fighting inflation and actually fighting inflation are two completely different things. Conversation is cheap (this is the only [cheap] thing currently). If there is a choice between (1) reverse quantitative easing and the wealth effect, causing the bond/stock/real estate market to collapse, and (2) verbally "fighting" inflation while at the same time letting inflation heat up... I would choose the second door , Monty.

This is interesting, actually. Some people say that the Fed will never reduce QE, while others say that the Fed will never reduce QE.

However, the Fed has already begun to reduce quantitative easing.

It is no longer a question of "if"-but a question of how fast.

My definition of downsizing is to sell assets on the balance sheet and return them to zero. Before that, PFFFFFFFFFFFFT.

If you want, you can create your own definition of "cone" in your mind, but here and in this case, it means gradually reducing things over time-this is exactly what the Fed is doing Things to do. It's too late, but they are doing it.

Remember Bernanke's saying that quantitative easing is a temporary stimulus measure that will be lifted within a year? I am willing. Welcome to the 14th year of "provisional".

Depth... I remember Bernanke said in an article in the Wall Street Journal. I tore it off... I knew right away that it was BS... but never thought they would blow it off like before.

$0 is not practical. I would be surprised if they can reduce it from US$9T to US$7 trillion after the reduction is over. They plan to reduce from 4.5T USD to 2.5-3T USD in 2018, and to 3.7T USD before the market starts to throw up.

There are many reasons why the central bank’s balance sheet cannot be zeroed, including “currency” (paper currency = 2.2 trillion U.S. dollars), which is a liability on the Fed’s balance sheet, and banks purchase “currency” securities or cash from the Federal Reserve. (reserve). Therefore, the Fed’s assets are at least as much as the outstanding banknotes, the theoretical minimum is currently $2.2 trillion.

"It depends on what we do, not what we say"

https://wolfstreet.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/10/US-Fed-Balance-sheet-2021-10-28-assets-long-.png

The mirage of inflation The manipulation of interest rates by the central bank has created a mirage of man-made prosperity and wealth.

This kind of manipulation cannot last forever. When it finally stops, if we want to avoid runaway inflation, we must stop it, and then the day of liquidation will come.

Ludwig von Mises explained Boom and Bust in The Theory of Money and Credit. Original publication time: 1912

A recession does not require currency deflation. All that is needed is to reduce the currency inflation rate.

Start-stop-start-stop-but the bubble is getting bigger and bigger.

Once upon a time, 1 million is a considerable amount of money-today, if you don't have billions, then you are just an ordinary person.

Wolfe, the Fed, no matter what they say, it seems that they won't or can't let interest rates rise too high... So what do you think of them holding down these interest rates without quantitative easing or similar versions? Downsizing in the short term is very different from completing its plan or restoring QE within a few months. Do you really think they will now allow the free market to have interest rates as high as they want?

Our problem comes from subsidized debt with artificially low interest rates.

For decades, the Federal Reserve has been raising federal funds to meet the inflation rate... and often beyond... to fight inflation.

Now, due to the huge debts on the books due to the carnival of debt creation, people say they cannot raise interest rates. It's like the college student said he borrowed too much money. You did it... lived up to it.

The reason for this situation is that interest rates are far lower than inflation and cannot be a solution.

Interest rates must rise in a severe manner to curb this inflation and end the era of trillions of debts imposed on future generations.

When it comes to the Federal Reserve, you believe whatever you want to believe. The Fed can do whatever it wants. For supporters of the Federal Reserve, this is too much, they are screaming. The Fed will eventually take action. The reduction has already begun and will end in the middle of 2022 or earlier-this means the end of quantitative easing. It was followed by a reduction in the balance sheet and interest rate hikes.

I think the whole "panic story" of inflation is like this-a panic story.

There is no problem with inflation, which is criticized by the media.

I certainly didn't notice anything here.

The 30,000-foot view is that not only did they not downsize, but they also doubled the quantitative easing policy. Only when you zoom in on a specific time range, they will gradually become smaller.

The money supply will continue to increase until morality improves!

Not only did they gradually shrink and complete the reduction, but they actually reduced the balance sheet until the market began to collapse and Trump hissed.

Wolf, that's what I mean. Yes, I agree that they have gradually reduced the balance sheet and slightly reduced the balance sheet. I mean that from the overall and long-term perspective, the balance sheet will only increase. The last taper and this taper are just noise in the long-term trend, which is why you will be opposed by critics.

Isn't the Bank of Japan just "shrinking" and then withdrawing immediately? I think they finally hit the wall. If they gradually decrease, the market will fall, and if they do not, then the dollar will fall. It seems to be popcorn time to me. Wolfe told me not long ago that this is not the beginning of hyperinflation. But I still want to know if it is.

"Isn't the Bank of Japan just'shrinking' and then withdrawing immediately?"

Do not. The Bank of England completely ended its quantitative easing policy at the end of October. It didn't even bother to shrink. It just ended, let it expire. It's all over. See the flat point at the top of the past three weeks?

When the pumping stops in June, the inflation rate may be higher. "So, what is the damage of inflation to that point in time? The Fed is late and they seem to enjoy the situation.

All this is too in line with the MMT script... It says, don't raise interest rates to fight inflation, but raise taxes. Kind of what happened here...

You only need to increase taxes on the 10 richest people in the United States to see the difference.

BuildBackBrokeBoy wants to add more than 75,000 new IRS employees. Do you think it was to investigate the rich? what! That is to start putting daily Jos under the microscope.

Even in the face of performance records pointing in the opposite direction, I like this unbridled optimism.

May we all have a better day!

I find it ridiculous that some people think that the Fed will not think that inflation will come because of a million and one reason. However, the main reason this is obvious to the Fed is because they studied the past and referred to the past that is most similar to the present-the post-World War II and fiscal/monetary policy results.

Look, they haven't raised interest rates in the face of a 90% depreciation of the U.S. dollar in the past ten years. At that time we had a formal YCC, now we have an informal YCC.

Therefore, inflation exceeded their expectations because some inputs have changed a lot. For example, it is not obvious that housing will flourish and become a gang destroyer. If they believe CoreLogic's data, CoreLogic predicts that house prices will fall in mid-2020. Now, rent increases are ruthless. The difference between 1945 and 1955 is the pure bubble of assets. At that time, quantitative easing was also huge, but the bubble was not the case.

So, how do you control CPI? Many, many, many jawbone-it works as well as you recorded. Reduce anything to slightly change the mood. Considering RRP, the reduction at this point is mainly psychological, which will support the issuance once the debt ceiling "crisis" is over (laughs). The interest rate is raised because it needs more, and only 2-4 interest rate hikes will significantly change imo's guess.

But damn it-a good balance. They cannot break this bubble without destroying the house of cards. They need to do this gently. Anything that is not gentle will cause the market to crash and start again with larger quantitative easing and interest rate cuts (if they manage any interest rate hikes at that time). The main focus should be to withdraw some momentum from the real estate market to more strictly control the 2023 CPI at this time, haha. I imagine some truly temporary components will calm down in the middle of 2022.

In 10 years, I think the Fed will be happy about the sharp depreciation of the dollar. Speculators will lose a lot of real wealth, including those who speculate with large amounts of cash. Fiscal policy will support wage growth and capitalist wealth redistribution (for example, higher wages may end up eroding corporate profits in an unpassable way, more of returning to average levels, lowering stock prices and leaving nowhere to go. Go to 2030-just a real probability).

I am in my early 30s. My ideal retirement plan is to serve as the chairman of the Federal Reserve. Crazy, I realize, but I have been pursuing the craziest dreams and realizing them. The economic model urgently needs to be restarted, and under the current leadership of any government department, this will never happen. I hope that one day there will be an opportunity to innovate and repair this country economically, if we have not destroyed it then.

Boy, you will make some real money one day. I suspect you are doing well at the poker table now. But when the vacationer is still laughing and throwing chips, it’s hard to leave the table, isn’t it? Nonetheless, if you look closely, serious money is already doing this.

But the mandible is not enough. We have seen this and understood this game. No, we need more help this time. Oh my God, we might have to start building things again and invest accordingly-products we need in a degummed society.

@Crazy Chester-I don't know what you mean.

First of all, I don't gamble. In fact, I hate gambling.

I think my age is the source of condescending comments. I went through the GFC cycle, and it almost killed my first company when my family needed me the most to help us get out of trouble. After that, I quickly became a millionaire in mid-2010. 20 years old. Not through asset value, but through value creation.

Since the end of the global financial crisis, I have also experienced two extremely difficult market cycles in my industry, which are really scary. Far more terrifying than anything I saw today.

According to the record, yes, this is a huge annoying bubble. Just like I said. I did not get any huge gains, that is, because I stayed away from the bubble and invested in meaningful places, such as buying REITs (mostly 1/2 to 2/3 lower than NAV) for US dollar pennies or buying large discounts. After combining my own fundamental analysis with the analysts I respect in the bear/bull side, blue chip stocks.

If the market crashes> 50%, I can totally accept it. At least until then, all these fake millionaires will not think they know real wealth. Also, I have a lot of cash (new cash every quarter thanks to the seven-figure distribution income), personal debt accounts for 5.5% of net assets (mostly 2.25%), and my company debt since then is Zero is established. I will not "control TF".

Slighter hands? It also sounds good to me. You won't see a 5% federal funds rate anytime soon, and it's still lower than inflation. If 2-4 interest rate hikes are enough to eliminate some bubbles and reduce them further, it will only slow down the contribution of rents to CPI, and the Fed hopes that the supply chain problem can also be calmed down.

So, anyway, maybe one day I will make some real money. Considering the early stages of my career, I would not be surprised. Now, I am just a humble billionaire. The billionaire before the pandemic began. Since 2007, his net worth has grown steadily, that is, through the distribution of current assets.

@LOL So how do I enter the bottom of your business? The only prospect I have is to grab someone else's rocket. XD

good luck. I am 40 years old and I am pursuing a difference. I am not interested in becoming wealthy, just safe and independent, and there is a stable society around me. Many of these are due to my many myths and propaganda during my growth in the Midwest.

...And the question of "how long" will it take to return to $120 billion after the stock market has fallen by 5-10%

Do you expect the government to magically fund its huge and parabolic growth budget through taxation?

If the Federal Reserve withdraws funding from the government and stops monetizing the debt, the government will become insolvent.

In my opinion, they are planning to increase spending instead of reducing spending, and they do not seem to be acting like the Fed will stop paying bills.

I find it hard for you to trust the Fed. My money suddenly changed its face in their fake "tapering".

You don’t seem to understand how the Federal Reserve works. All this has to do with credit market manipulation. Credit market manipulation is done by the Federal Reserve. This is what it does. If it does it in secret, it cannot manipulate the credit market. It manipulates it by sending the message what it is going to do, and then does what it says.

It has always been the same. This is why the Fed disclosed details of its balance sheet, asset purchases and asset losses during quantitative easing (2017-2019), repo market intervention and bailouts (September 2019 to January 2020), and all other content, and This is why it advertises these things and announces it, it is two-way.

As fast as the market starts to crash...then grab your hat, this roller coaster will go backwards, and then step on the gas again.

I think the biggest question is how long it lasts. They will not allow the housing to collapse

It is the government, not the FRB, that can prevent or slow the collapse of the real estate market. FRB implements a quantitative easing policy, but does not actually underwrite mortgage loans or define underwriting standards.

Now that the suspension has been deemed a success, don’t be surprised if the government does this again in an “emergency” situation.

What is an "emergency"? No matter what they define arbitrarily.

@3%, only $2.5B per month can prevent a $1T debt default. For about 50% of all outstanding mortgage debt, this is $30B or about $150B per year.

The reason is that it is much cheaper than another financial crisis (which I expect to happen anyway).

But they can also go back to December 2018, when Mkt started to lose his temper! Do I trust the Fed? Suri can't do it!

When buying a new pillow, I found that even the price of DOWN is rising.

The filling is as light as a feather

New paradigm. Down is up, and up is down.

interesting. Not what I expected, but by the end of the day, the market showed that Wolf was right

You are Johnny Wolf on the spot. Great report.

For ordinary people, some of the highest components of inflation are rent and transportation. I can see the rent price control from the left. A good way to continue to suspend rents.

The newly elected Mayor of Boston is already talking about rent controls. However, a state law prevents it, and the governor opposes signing a bill to overturn it. So, good luck to you.

In my opinion, the solution is to change the zoning law (nationally) to allow more multi-family houses to be built. good luck.

Berzerkeley and other cities have changed zoning to allow 4 "units" for each previous SFR plot... Other cities have changed zoning to encourage enough SF land in each yard, etc. At the same time, various "squatters" have actually obtained ownership of the place where they have lived, sometimes for decades; this happened in the San Francisco Bay Area and Berlin in the news around last year. We live in "fun times" when some people want us all, eh?

Wasn't New York City subject to rent control from the beginning? I am not a fan of RC, but now in some circles like strange circles...

By the way: I am surprised that the Fed releases oil from its strategic reserves. This should be for emergency situations, such as an ME war, which happened once and blocked the Suez Canal for many years. Oil is less than eighty per barrel. How can there be an emergency?

The emergency depends on the eyes of the bystander.

From the perspective of historical or current world affairs, this is not an emergency.

But if you think about it from the perspective of the DC Cabal, it's an emergency like "we will lose the election."

Sell ​​the country to benefit your @ss.

Edited above, the circulation of SPR is about 50 MM BBL, of which 32 MM BBL is lent and 18 MM BBL is sold.

The problem is that December oil from the refinery has been purchased, and this oil will not enter the refinery until early next year. Today’s report stated that the impact of this release will not change the price of the pump by more than a few cents.

Biden panicked about high oil prices. He was ridiculed when he asked Saudi Arabia and OPEC to increase production in order to lower crude oil prices so that our citizens could get lower oil prices.

He next went to American producers and asked (were told?) that they increase production to do the same thing, but was ignored. He doesn't seem to understand that it takes months for new wells to be drilled, completed, proven, and hydrocarbons enter the system. In addition, there is currently a shortage of labor in oil fields.

Of course, American producers are not particularly excited about him stopping pipeline construction projects in the midstream and threatening to close existing operating pipelines to satisfy environmental geeks. In addition, he is stopping drilling for crude oil on federal land.

Therefore, all he has left is to extract oil from SPR and try to refine it. There are really not so many (I believe 30 MM barrels), which will not have an impact on gasoline pricing today. In addition, I think the SPR version is lent to oil producers and must be supplemented. SPR is really a joke.

The problem is that oil prices are not high. The high price is gasoline. Some people (integrated oil companies, oil refineries, etc.) make a lot of money between the two.

Thanks for pointing this out, wow. The news cycle is very dense, and that one flashes past. For a moment, I wanted to know what happened to the Iranian ships heading to Venezuela-and then realized that it was *June*. I want to know if once the drama and mystery are over, the result is not well publicized.

Bush Jr. released oil from reserves under similar improper circumstances. This is sad.

Bush Jr. has at least one reasonable explanation-Hurricane Katrina damaged and shut down the southern refinery.

What excuses are there now?

The cone will accelerate from here.

Start shorting the U.S. Treasury ETF TBT from here until further notice.

To achieve these goals, CPI will be re-adjusted with exciting new hedonic quality adjustments.

It does not work. They can lie as they wish. People know what their monthly expenses are.

According to calculations, in the past 10 years, the actual impact of CPI and inflation on Joe's average has been underestimated by about 3%. This seems to be an unobvious or tolerable restriction, and it applies not only to the United States but also internationally. Of course, since this situation has been going on for 10 years, now even Joe Average has noticed cumulative effects, such as how often he/she can afford to eat out or where they can afford to go on vacation. The Covid effect means that 3% of "liars" cannot be maintained now, and the curtains have been pulled back.

Well, if Big Brother and all his younger siblings say that inflation is coming, that must be the case. I remember now that we have been at war with Oceania and inflation. However, there are still some temporary followers...maybe great people should send any remaining deflationary revisionists to the Gulag (they come for you David Rosenberg and Bob Hoy ) As a warning to the beginning of the cross-crowd sing the new international inflation song announced by our glorious leader.

What a bunch of nonsense. These people are reckless liars.

I'm sure you mean "horsesh$t"...

You know...what will you intervene when you get off that high horse...

Should this be a clever insult? How sad. Have you ever thought about commenting on articles instead of attacking commenters? did not expect……

"Did he say that it is time for Powell and Brainard to put down their giants and do something about these crazy price increases?"

Thought you read...

Sorry, brother,... my fault, I didn't realize that you didn't...

So in the context of the articles I've read, and your comments on articles you haven't read, yes, very smart...

I apologize to you. I seem to have attracted many enemies and misunderstood you. I have at least a few others whose screen names start with C. Again, I'm sorry.

By the way, I did read this article, but obviously my reading comprehension is not the best.

No problem, my friend...

I have a twisted sense of humor that sometimes flows over my own head...

Moarrr may well be that you turned your meager assets... into those upper-level anointed bank scum...because "what inflation?" .. I, us, the almighty Federal Reserve... from us From the (advantage) point of view, don’t worry about inflation..."

Fuck these magicians to hell

Do you know what I want to see? ? ...In my meager savings, there is a bit of interest inflation... After the Federal Reserve Brainiacs lowered the interest rates of those former depositors to negative interest rates... Now it has become the movable property of the Bankster Slavers.

My bond with the Ministry of Finance currently provides a good rate of return on investment.

It's all true! How to criticize Bush/Obama's response to the greater crisis, they did not have enough stimulus, the speed of money lagging for many years, etc.? Treas Sec. Paulson's memoir is quite interesting.

Many people who experienced that crisis advocated that more efforts should be made in the next crisis. Here we are!

Fiscal stimulus is combined with monetary stimulus. One is to stimulate the economy, and the other is to stimulate asset prices.

Okay, but instead of trying to unblock the gears of the economy by igniting the Wall Street banker's vault, and then igniting the initially slow/burning fire of money, which is now rapidly burning through assets?

Then maybe not. I thank you for your work and the anger of informed citizens.

The Fed believes that Obama's fiscal policy is ineffective. Therefore, it did not cut interest rates, but only raised interest rates once—a 25% increase.

Of course, Obama/Biden is not malicious.

Trump's fiscal policy hit a home run. So the Fed reduced quantitative easing within two years, stopped quantitative easing, reversed quantitative easing, and raised interest rates from 0.5 to 2.5 7 times (or 8 times?).

Trump was furious, which broke Powell. He is no longer the same person.

The Fed believes that Obama's fiscal policy is ineffective. So it did not reduce or raise interest rates (but increased by a quarter).

Trump's fiscal policy hit a home run. So the Fed gradually reduced QE, stopped QE, reversed QE and raised interest rates from 0.5 to 2.5 within two years.

Is it possible for the Fed to stick to the current pace of ending quantitative easing while using other tools to tighten the currency faster? In any case, can the interest rate be increased to 0.25 pc in a few months? Can the Fed do more in repurchase operations? Just want to pass all possibilities.

Will we see the December 2018 replay again?

People always say that "the stock market can't even withstand a small rise." But this started by assuming that the price before the reduction in November 2018 was the "correct" price. Maybe they are not what they "should" be.

The stock market was in a frenzy in December 2018 and is now even more inflated.

Since the end of the 90s, there has never been a fanaticism more fanatical than us. In 2003 and 2009, U.S. stock prices were somewhat "reasonable" after falling by more than 50%, but they were never really "cheap".

Yes, I know it is easy for people to believe that 20 years of mania is impossible, but you have done it. It is ultimately based on manic psychology, which makes all the WTF charts displayed on this website possible. This is why there is no required limit on duration, because it is certainly not based on actual mediocre to bad fundamentals obscured by false economy and false wealth.

Monetary policy is an integral part of it. It is “effective” not because FRB has the mysterious power that most other central banks lack (such as the current Turkey), but because it has an accommodating psychology.

When they are psychologically opposed to FRB, their policies will be regarded as a failure, and the market will oppose them, which can be said to expose them nakedly.

I feel that they know this and are looking for a way to use their renomination as an opportunity to "save face." FRB does not exist outside of the financial bubble they have promoted, as some people believe. They are not immune to "recoil."

Warren Buffett and Charlie Munger have a good track record of being good stewards of investor funds. They know that the risk is very high, otherwise they would not have $150 billion in cash equivalents on their balance sheet.

Based on the buffet indicators, you might argue that it was cheap in 2009. But I agree with your larger point of view. The Fed cannot save the economy. All it can do is print and jawbone. No matter what it says, it has no other "tools." It can print and transfer wealth from dollar holders to others, or it can jawbone and hope people buy nonsense because they tell them.

There are comparisons. Before the market reacted, we had already raised interest rates in depth. We should assume that interest rates are already higher. If CPI or GDP slows down, in fact, interest rate or interest rate hike pressure will weaken. This is like cutting interest rates for most markets. The Fed gave in at the end of 2019, anyway, this is technically established, and the pandemic collapsed. The danger here is slow growth, weak inflation is a blessing, but the Fed has not actually raised interest rates, which is enough, but if they suddenly become more dovish, please note that they don’t have much room to cut interest rates. Or add to their balance sheet without causing problems. The market's correction of interest rate hikes is a short-term issue, which means rising inflation and economic growth. Accepting the 20-foot crash is not only related to Covid.

I believe it when I see it.

Exactly. These clowns will find a way to tell us that they are fighting inflation while continuing to cause inflation.

Too few come late. End the fake Fed!

The house induces inflation, and JP will hit the house. Elizabeth's fangs will sting JP.

You can change the nominee or grill him to attract an educated public. Working behind closed doors, she is pleased with the growth of her (and donors) investment portfolio. As long as the basic principle remains the same, the result is the same. Crazy is repeating the same experiment and expecting different results...

Republicans will slander Elizabeth...

The Democrats play chess, the Republicans play chess...

If you don't increase financing to affect the paying crowd, Dems will not be able to curb inflation...

Companies will not reduce their price hikes because of their net profits... This round of inflation (plus future increases) will not decline...

Republicans treat inflation as belonging to the Democrats, and then blame the increase in financing on the Democrats, which will affect the same people...

The regrettable Democrat makes your life miserable... Vote for the Republican Party...

Powell took off the noose and won a medal...

Republicans pay for the DC Christmas party...

Beautiful fantasy, bud. In fact, everyone remembers that the last government rectified the Weimar boy and forced him to cut interest rates. During the pandemic, this did not even involve printing money. Not everyone is as stupid as you, thinking that this can actually be attributed to the Democratic Party.

Yes, educated people may remember, but mainstream people (unfortunately) only hear the hype from conservative media and will vote accordingly.

Regardless of acidity, you really think that many Democrats will remember things from a few years ago and connect them before today or the next election...

Two years ago was meaningless to many people...

I personally think that most people will look for what they want to do for me today...this is how they vote...

Republicans will point out the prices of groceries and gasoline and see how much interest you need to pay for your car or house...the case is closed...

I once again apologize for my rudeness.

The wonderful thing about the reckless spending and government growth of the previous government. But I think you underestimated the stupidity/ignorance of ordinary voters.

Both parties should be blamed the same, so party members believe that it is correct to continue to vote for their party. It is easy to blame each other.

If another stimmie is from the Democratic Party, I wouldn’t be surprised...

As "We're sorry we screwed you up, there is some money to make up for it" or something...

I will not be surprised. These people are so stupid, they have been doing things that cause pain. You can go back to my comments on this website before the start of this massive inflation and see where I warned that it will cause inflation, and I am just a humble contractor. Well, here we are!

The United States will be lucky to raise the Fed rate by 25 basis points...but 6%?

There is no chance in he77.

In addition, this is now a high-risk political game, because as the midterm elections approach, any rise in interest rates and consequences will be blamed on those in power.

"Fighting inflation means raising short-term interest rates close to the level of inflation. If inflation does not slow down, then raising it above the level of inflation. So we can calculate it.:

There are more poor people than rich people. Compared with some stock market adjustments, inflation will cause more pain and anger. More than half of the American population has zero exposure to stocks.

Not really, at least 50% of people are broke

When the stock and housing markets collapse, the pain will spread to all directions, and the current government will have nowhere to escape, nowhere to hide. They will be included in the garbage dump of American history.

But you want inflation to stop.

Over the years, interest rates have been lowered: to drive growth, obtain healthy pension funds, and raise the price of renewable energy and stocks. And trying to support the pandemic chaos.

The end of the growth plan for many years will not be very beautiful. There is no soft landing.

Another aspect that has been overlooked in the comments I see here is that most billionaires and other wealthy people do not have the influence that many seem to believe. Monetary policy will not help them out of trouble forever. Most of them can and will be sacrificed when "necessary."

According to Forbes, there were 12 billionaires in 1982, and now there are 724. In the country, there are actually not nearly 724 super powerful or influential people. This also means that none of them have political influence to save their skin, even assuming they know the actual current state of the economy and financial system, and most of them almost certainly don't.

When the fanaticism really ends, most of the billionaire class and (supposedly) the rich will also become poorer or poorer. Many people will be mostly wiped out even if they are not completely wiped out, because they don't actually have much substance.

Words are much cheaper than actions. They all admit that inflation is a problem, which is politically necessary. Implementing policy actions is much more difficult. Both of them have a ten-year record in making monetary policy. As others have said, I believe it when I see it.

You won't see it, but you will hear tough conversations. You will always be in a state of chaos. Because what you hear and what you see will not match!

Oops, how much of the current and future increase in inflation is due to increased energy costs in all aspects of the economy, from manufacturing to transportation of goods? Then I saw the introduction of this article:

According to a letter seen by CNN, nearly a dozen Congressional Democrats urged President Joe Biden to fight high oil prices by not only releasing barrels from the US Strategic Petroleum Reserve, but also banning US oil exports.

Aren’t these people who canceled Keystone XL after the Canadian part and the southern part of the United States have been built?

The strategic reserve has less than a month of additional supply, but if you run out of it, there is no buffer to deal with sudden increases in costs or supply disruptions. Ban exports in the so-called free market economy? Then ban the export of liquefied natural gas to Europe, while also sanctioning Nord Stream 2 as a threat to Russia's build-up of troops on the Ukrainian border? Good luck with all this. These guys are playing with it. The left hand does not know what the right hand is doing, let alone a coherent vision beyond political reaction and spending money to vote.

Paul said: "Exports are prohibited in the so-called free market economy?" ————————————

What free market? Over the years, the market has been manipulated and disrupted by the Federal Reserve. When you lower interest rates and create dollars, you distort the value and price of dollars. When you distort the price of the U.S. dollar, it transforms into general prices and asset prices, and distorts the prices and actions in them.

So the Fed is in the cat bird seat. Yields are allowed to rise, inflation is suppressed, money is redistributed from stocks to bonds, and government spending plans are monetized. They have printed enough, now they only need to be used for the right investment. All of this was done when the U.S. dollar was under bidding, financial hardening appeared in Europe and Japan, and the taboo of chasing climate change. China will lose some important markets while they are trying to eliminate the real estate bubble. There are no signs of a recession in the U.S. economy. The only real problem is political stubbornness. The more a group or party sees itself as a loser, the deeper they go.

1. The Fed has been monitoring debt until they shrink the balance sheet to about 2 trillion or less.

2. They are still stimulating the economy before the Fed's interest rate is higher than inflation.

I still stick to the barbell strategy of short-term Treasury bonds and precious metals plus gold miners until I figure out what the Fed is going to do.

Don't really think that real interest rates will rise.

If they stop shrinking and the stocks fall, I expect gold will also fall, and I will support the purchase of gold and LEAP at that time. Eventually, the Fed will restart its quantitative easing policy, thereby destroying all remaining credibility.

You can only play so much in the financial system before people look for exits. The Federal Reserve's intervention becomes more and more absurd with each cycle.

Recall Wolf's recent chart on margin debt (outside of Wazoo). Exiting operations with higher interest rates will cause all hell to collapse.

If the market crashes, I expect gold, especially gold miners, to be in trouble, but that's why I only hold about 20% of assets. If the Fed keeps real interest rates negative for a long time, it really is to protect itself.

Higher interest rates may undermine CRYPTOS... For the IMO, most bubbles are due to the lack of a fair monetary return... If a fair return...return... ... CRYPTOS will be under fire... and many people have put a lot of energy into this vague game. If severe bleeding occurs, it may spread to other markets. Things are very fragile... the Fed has messed it up. Too much, too much is difficult to undo.

– Maybe Powell sees something in the data that indicates that the demand for Treasury bonds is "weakening"? -Still do not believe that the Fed will raise interest rates soon. The 3-month Treasury bill is still closer to zero, rather than close to 0.25%.

The 3-month Treasury bill predicts what may happen in the next 0-8 weeks. The closer it is to 12 weeks, the less important it is, because when it matures within 12 weeks, the holder will get the face value anyway. So now, the 3-month yield is expected to be at most the beginning of January. That's it.

Loose monetary policy allows ordinary Americans to make the most of their assets. No one takes their proceeds and uses them to do anything, instead of throwing them on the bubble. Let us not even enter American companies.

I don't think the Fed or any political party will try to shrink the bubble. Slowing the bubble is the best result we can hope for. If the bubbles shrink, millions of people will eventually fall underwater.

They will do some trivial things, hoping that everything else can catch up with inflation, while the middle class and the lower class are eaten alive. Nevertheless, part of the reason is their fault. Or the bubbles will burst as usual, and everyone will leave a bruised butt after bouncing off the floor.

I think the silver lining is that when panic strikes, there will be a lot of distressed selling going on.

If the stock, bond, and real estate markets are in the biggest bubble ever, then we are likely to go all the way to the other side, and eventually we will enter a market that has no bids on these three markets.

Either that, or we wandered around in the wilderness for 40 years because we were afraid of the consequences.

At the same time, are they trying to push the market to annual highs at the end of the year? That's the Wall Street movement... Every day in December... yippee! The "Santa Claus" rally... The person in charge of wired communications called it...

If the consequence of this unprecedented enthusiasm is 40 years of horizontal adjustment, it will be the first time anything close to it has happened anywhere. This is one thing about mania, it does not gently discourage or stagnate. It collapsed, and the greater the fanaticism, the greater the collapse.

For this fanaticism, because FRB and the US government will definitely try to "do something", I will experience a series of severe or very severe recessions over a long period of time. Intermittent rebound and recovery of varying degrees and duration, but most people continue to become poorer or poorer.

Truck drivers "Millions of people end up underwater."

Millions of people will give back some easy money. Others, those who play late, FOMO buyers will be stimulated... but the market will eventually hurt the wrong decisions... and the Fed is not trying to save everyone's wrong decisions... (though sometimes it seems like this)

1) Last week, Friday, US 6M was smaller than US1M, inverted. Today the US 1M fell and JP declared war on inflation. 2) In O/N transactions, the JP War Fund is growing to provide collateral to shadow banks. 30Y and 20Y are still inverted, and there is no change. 3) 2Y jumped, but 10Y didn't care. 4) DX, USD, jumped to 96.53 above the backbone in January/February 2015!

Some days I wish I could understand Michael Engel more easily :)

You must read it again :)

Everyone is buying dollar assets. The situation in the rest of the world is much worse. We have a central bank with relative restrictions on money creation. The global monetary base ignores planned divestments and sell-offs, buyers resist low prices, and sellers wait for high prices. It's very simple. There are alternative divestments; farmland, cryptocurrency, gold, and digital phantoms are all in their own bubbles. The stock market is now a "futures" market. This goes against the Fed’s intention to increase asset prices in a gradient manner through inflation to make it look like economic growth and prosperity. This is a great lie. It is done when the currency depreciates, and the dollar depreciates less. The United States is the richest country, because this is how the script is written. They want to have confidence in (the United States), but we have not fulfilled our obligations. The social structure of the United States is dilapidated, and the financial system is corrupt and hypocritical. From this perspective, China has a more sense of social responsibility. We only need to see whether they respect the boundaries of power. Now it may be that one or two of the Fed’s nominees will be challenged, but no one will challenge what they are doing. Loyalty is faith and nothing is gained. ROW is laughing, but they know that hot money kiosks will continue to provide them with a way to hedge their deep-rooted problems and loopholes. In the futures market, every seller has a buyer. The valuation is adjusted immediately, you only need consensus or information (the Fed’s operation of funds and strategies have no influence, so the Fed bureaucrats are forced to play the game by themselves, that is, trading futures...) Imagine that there is no expiry storage, in the futures There is no demand for this paper at maturity (see crude oil becomes negative). The stock turned negative. Then there was the re-expansion of assets, and at the same time a policy to eliminate this monetary fuel (dirty profits) was formulated, because of its long history of corruption that has been manipulated for ethnic, tribal, and speculative purposes. All money is blood money. Then we will have something better.

So, are serial arsonists going to become heroic firefighters now? Oh yes, I believe it. Uh-huh

This is the great politics at work that allowed j Powell to take office, and then he is a fallen man. The Democrats will blame him for it, and in the case of unable to win, he is a puppet pulled by a rope.

There is news that Brainard cannot be confirmed in the Senate, so Superman J. Powell is indeed the case.

It doesn't matter, because the economy is addicted to the Fed's cracking, sometimes we will have to be indifferent.

Voters will not blame Powell or FRB. To do this, they must first know who he is and understand what FRB does that they don't.

Most people have no clue.

– Maybe the Biden administration is increasingly worried about rising prices? And tell the Fed that they should also start to care? – I still think that everything the Fed says is a "dog and pony show". The real power lies in the hands of a force called "Mr." market".

Now reduce quantitative easing and gain a booster in six months.

They will eventually raise interest rates slightly. However, close to zero interest rates are the new normal.

Quantitative easing is also the new normal, otherwise the government/state will not be able to pay the bills. Please remember that the European Central Bank, the Bank of Japan, and the Federal Reserve have already launched quantitative easing policies as early as September 2019, because the global economy has begun to be affected by weak growth, imminent recession and deflation. Covid just accelerated and accelerated the existing global quantitative easing policy. If Covid never happened, then in 5-6 years we will inevitably experience what we are currently experiencing.

The dollar will continue to accelerate its depreciation.

Quantitative easing will end within a few months, which is guaranteed. Has been crushed. It's just a matter of how fast.

What is the blueprint for reinvestment of maturing securities?

"QE will end in a few months. This is guaranteed." You can eat these words, Woff. Never let your ego hinder a good decision.

We have experienced this situation before. This is not new. This is part of the work of the Federal Reserve. Anyone who has been following this for years knows how the Fed does this.

Last time, people said the same thing: the Fed will never shrink and then shrink, they said the Fed will never raise interest rates, and then the Fed will raise interest rates (Yellen, Powell), they said the Fed will never let the balance sheet go down, Then the Fed let the balance sheet go down. The way people refuse to see it is interesting.

Wolf, do you think it is necessary for the Fed group to raise interest rates partially?

The Fed can be reduced to a point, but this is not the year 2000. The Fed will erode the margins by restricting quantitative easing and raising interest rates a little bit, but it must eventually fund the federal deficit. Social security must be improved like all other government programs. Can short-term interest rates reach 5%? No, because it will destroy the US government.

Inflation will soar because the Fed has said it will push the economy to heat up. There is no standardization, and there is no turning back. If global warming is to be tackled, energy and commodity prices must soar. If the world is to be saved, the growing wealth pyramid must be overthrown. This means less profit and less everything.

There is no turning back.

"Can not go back."

No, no, but this does not mean that the public will not be thrown under the bus anyway, and "Print to Infinity" will be used to achieve good results in social programs.

The Ponzi scheme cannot be reduced. When things finally start to crack and wet the well-known bed, they will relax and then roll it up in some shape or form.

But is the end of quantitative easing only "temporary"? This has become a new problem at the moment.

Macro... "However, interest rates close to zero are the new normal."

It's totally illogical. The reason for the situation, excessive debt and inflation, is the low interest rates that are used to subsidize debt and inflation, which are close to zero.

Therefore, the solution cannot be more the same. That is insanity.

The solution cannot be the same as the cause. Inflation has just begun...

I agree with you. There is no "new normal". This statement is absurd.

This so-called "new normal" is the result of the mania of manic mental assets. Believe it means one of two things:

One: Contrary to common sense and physics, there are indeed some things for nothing.

Two: Creditors will always be deceived. Believe that this is the common belief of human beings as robots, even if their wealth and living standards are destroyed, they will always sit there doing nothing.

Now that the rich have dumped retail stocks and the Democrats know that their rule is in danger, you can be sure that they will break the bubble to attract the voter base. "Seeing that we have those rotten rich people, now vote for democracy!".

In fact, both parties are responsible, and no one wants to be responsible for it. Although everyone is complaining about how bad the free government money is, you have heard that very few people return it to the sender.

Many voters are just as keen to let this scam continue. What else can a political party do? Light a match clearly marked "TNT" in the shed like a Warner Bros. cartoon?

It depends on the narrative that either party will try to sell to the middle 10% of voters...

They are the most important...

If they swing to the left, the Democrats will win...

If they swing slightly to the right, Repubs will win...

When they say "this is the economy, stupid", this is the important group.

Indeed, you are right, COWG. 10% control the agenda.

Which rich man are you talking about?

This is not the majority of the billionaire class. They are not sitting on cash equivalents, and their collective psychology is not necessarily different from that of the public.

I haven't seen the Forbes 400 for a while, but I will make a crazy guess, because most people are also mostly invested in this bubble. For all 724 billionaires, it is of course impossible to "cash out" most or completely without causing the market to collapse, or at least not affecting the value of their core assets.

Besides, who will buy or buy from them?

Making interest rates higher than the inflation rate means they must be higher than 7%. Three generations of consumers born in the United States have never seen such an interest rate. I don't see that as an option for anyone who wants to be re-elected.

As interest rates rise, the inflation rate falls. They will complete it step by step. Unless we encounter the crazy inflation of the 80s at some point. Then the Fed will really hit the interest rate machine hard. Just like last time.

I remember the last time. No fun.

I think they will find many excuses to say that they believe that inflation will pass, but as housing costs start to affect their stupid way of determining cpi, their goose has been cooked for a while. If we reach 6% this time next year, I won't be surprised.

Someone needs to propose an empirical correction factor for CPI. Most people agree that this is not real life.

The main components of inflation are housing, clothing, food, and transportation.

I am one of the lucky ones who have not been substantively affected by the Biden inflation that is raging across the country.

Housing-we have no mortgage payments. There is no inflation. A negligible increase in property taxes.

Home maintenance-do most (if not all) by yourself.

Clothing-got everything we need and donated most of the things we have. Wear jeans and shorts every day.

Food-we eat fish and vegetarian food. There is no more red meat. The price increase of these commodities last year was small.

Transportation-The two old cars were paid off, and the price of gasoline had no effect, because we had very few trips except for business trips, so we wrote them off. In the past 2 years, we went out from the DC metro area once for vaccination.

Consumer Discretionary-Unless it is a necessity, we don't buy anything. We are on a buyer's strike.

So, while I sympathize with those affected by 20% inflation, instead of complaining, you can take some steps to minimize the impact. This is not the 1930s. At least not yet.

There are many concepts with you and you, SC: Older than any "baby boomers", although I do sympathize with them and all kinds of people younger than the baby boomers,,, in my opinion, at this point Above, everyone/family has the same "choice" as my parents, they are all "FKA's most depressed child". After meeting the "need" cost, choose to work hard and save every penny or dollar. Or just gathering, dude and dude... My ancestors chose two paths, and the result is very clear, based on these people... "gathering", or delving into as many savings methods as possible ,,, I used to bury gold and silver in the yard until it collapsed, then dig it out and buy a few cents with pounds... It has nothing to do with any age group, because some of the complainers here will seem to be thinking; absolutely personal "Preferences" are endlessly related...this has always been the case

Small-cap stocks and growth stocks have been hit hard today. They are the canary market that is preparing for higher interest rates.

good. Powell said that some measures must be taken against inflation. It is his job to do something. So interest rates will rise. It may be only 0.25, then there is no change for 6 months, and then it rises again. In stages.

The stock market will try to lead the Fed.

Chintzy's 0.25 basis point rate hike will not stop this inflation. They will need to hike like Volcker did in the 1970s to stop this. My guess is that they are just taken aback now, but they have absolutely no interest in really stopping this kind of inflation. Eventually they will be forced to do so.

I think they have their plan. Respond slowly to inflation. It will take several years to reduce it to 2% while keeping the real interest rate at a negative value of 2-7%.

If this is their plan, it is BYEBYEBIDEN 2024. This will bring zero burden.

For the past decade, the Fed has been injecting vitality into the market. What makes you think they can, even if they want, raise interest rates where they belong? We need to stop being debt pigs!

Somehow, Biden and Powell seem to be far away from Reagan and Walker. Before political will rose to this occasion, inflation continued for more than a decade. Interest rates are still almost zero now.

This requires more than just calling back QE. The real short-term interest rate is a few percentage points below zero. This is an economic emergency, and no one seems to be eager to resolve it. Only when this gap starts to narrow, I will believe that they are serious.

They are only verbal now, procrastinating. But their hands will be forced. They are far behind the curve, which is ridiculous.

Raising 1/4 pt every 6 months is a "too late" drop

The Fed is overstimulating and they are too late in the inflation game... Every union in the country will go on strike... and these higher wages will be passed on. Therefore, the amount of upcoming inflation is inserted into the scene... and the harm is coming. The lag time is much longer than Powell seems to realize.

Long-term interest rates are the most important. They are the people who influence the economy because they increase the cost of borrowing for housing, companies, consumers, etc.

Quantitative easing suppressed long-term interest rates. So what needs to happen first is that quantitative easing needs to end, and then the balance sheet needs to start to fall.

Then they can raise short-term interest rates.

If they raise short-term interest rates now while still suppressing long-term interest rates through quantitative easing, they will forcibly reverse the yield curve (short-term yields are higher than long-term yields), which is meaningless.

I realize that my views are unconventional; the Fed certainly seems to agree with you. Largely due to historical reasons, QE is considered to be more radical than manipulating interest rates. Interest rate manipulation has been around for a long time. But I think the biggest damage is the manipulation of interest rates. Interest rate suppression continued until it reached the zero limit; large-scale quantitative easing was simply because interest rate suppression made things messy.

Ultimately, the interest rate is the price of credit, and the price constitutes the neural network of the economic system. Interfering with the price signal is financially equivalent to stuffing a penny in a fuse box... You may flow again, but risk burning the house.

Traditional thinking is exactly backwards. The Fed should not use quantitative easing as a substitute for cutting interest rates within the zero interest rate range, but as a way to escape the ZIRP trap. Make interest rate normalization a priority and use quantitative easing to help ease the transition.

Finster said: "The normalization of interest rates is the top priority," ————————- Agree. What Scumball Powell and his scumbag associates at the Federal Reserve did was the exact opposite of what they were supposed to do. While suppressing prudent and savers, they rewarded financial engineers and crooks. It's time to stop subsidizing private equity bastards.

Because government spending exceeds government revenue, Congress and the executive branch may be blamed for inflation. This leads to the issuance of more currencies or Treasury bills. People may cash these bills to buy things. The additional funds in circulation bid for scarce labor, resources, finished products and services.

This is a review of the events of March 21. By the end of August 2007, before the financial crisis broke out, the value of assets on the Fed's books was US$870 billion, and at the end of 2009 it was also US$2.23 trillion. Then the Fed's balance sheet rose from 4.7 trillion U.S. dollars to March 17, 2020, and by March 17, 2021 it will exceed 7.6 trillion U.S. dollars.

In 1981, the effective federal funds rate reached a peak of around 19%. In 2000, it reached a peak of about 6.5%. Then before the housing crisis, it was 5.25% in the summer of 2007.

Then it has been near 0% for the past 6 years, and then slowly rebounded to 2.4% in July 2019. During this period, the Federal Reserve allowed its balance sheet to slowly decline from a peak of about US$4.5 to US$3.8 trillion. In the summer of 2019, the Federal Reserve announced that it would "shrink" its balance sheet. They stated that they would "lease" approximately US$6 billion in U.S. Treasury bonds and approximately US$4 billion in mortgage-backed securities each month. "Then it will increase every three months." "There will be a loss of up to 30 billion U.S. dollars per month in Treasury bonds and a maximum of 20 billion U.S. dollars in mortgage-backed securities per month."

But then the financial market suddenly froze in September, and the Fed had to inject $53 billion into the market to intervene.

This ended the discussion on liquidation and ended the increase in the federal funds rate. Instead, the Fed began to buy more securities and lower interest rates. Before the COVID pandemic, interest rates had fallen to around 1.55%, and the balance sheet had almost returned to its previous high, which was 4.17 trillion at the end of 2019.

With the onset of the economic crisis triggered by the pandemic in March 2020, the Fed once again reduced interest rates to close to 0% and began to purchase securities in unprecedented numbers and types. It is now about 7.7 trillion U.S. dollars.

Why should we believe that the Fed will really end QE and allow interest rates to rise the last time it starts to let securities fall from the market and the Fed makes a 180-degree turn?

Until recently, there has not been any negative feedback from QE or ZIRP. With the increase in overall inflation, this situation has recently changed.

Do I know exactly what will happen?

What I know is that FRB will not "print to eternity", and everyone just sits there like a group of robots watching their standard of living and net worth being destroyed.

FRB does not exist in a vacuum, nor can it be immune to external perceptions or negative feedback. FOMC members are not robots either.

When the psychology runs counter to them, if the FRB insists on maintaining an ultra-loose monetary policy, no matter what they do, interest rates will rise, and the asset market (at least bonds and stocks) will fall or collapse anyway. They can't stop it, their belief is a myth.

The ultimate limit of any central bank's monetary policy is the foreign exchange value of the national currency, whether it is US dollars or other currencies. This is the foundation of any central bank's power, especially for the FRB that manages the world's reserve currencies.

If FRB insists on “printing money” to suppress interest rates regardless of the external environment, the exchange rate of the US dollar will plummet or collapse.

Anyone else can trust them to do this, but I will not be absent from desperate situations.

Augustus-Forex value may have been a limitation in the past, but it is no longer. QE is now coordinating among the central banks of all advanced economies, which helps to ensure that the exchange rates between these currencies remain relatively stable. The value of the U.S. dollar may be related to commodities or assets, but has nothing to do with the currencies of other advanced economies.

If all major central banks pursue the same extreme monetary policy, the global financial system will eventually collapse no matter what.

There is no free lunch in life, and this time is no exception.

The foreign exchange rate is not a mechanical result. It is difficult to coordinate monetary policy to ensure exchange rate stability.

Augustus-I totally agree, there is no free lunch! This strategy will fail in the long run, but in the short run, they will succeed in fooling many people.

Most of the books and online courses on how to invest have been produced in the past 40 years. In 1980, the federal funds rate was 20%. The 40-year bond bull market and stocks rose due to falling interest rates.

Baby boomers save money in retirement plans and buy stocks and bonds, driving up prices.

Now run these two in reverse and toss in the recession.

I no longer watch the Saturday Night Live... and start to watch the Fed Chairman regularly. The meeting between Powell and Biden... I am willing to spend a lot of money to sit down.

"I am committed to making working Americans the center of my work at the Federal Reserve..."

...Now I have transferred the wealth of generations to the non-working American oligarchy.

BenX...you see, Pal...this is all a planned plan. DC is nothing more than a planned circus for public entertainment. No matter what breadcrumbs are left, they will throw them at us...Thankfully, in my life, they think we should be generous and let us live a good life.

"...Now I have transferred the wealth of generations to the U.S. oligarchs that have no jobs." And in the past 12 years, I have added 21 trillion new debts to future generations... Until then, this country’s 215 years And the two world wars, the national debt in 2008 was 9 trillion.

Good far shore BX: Some people, here and elsewhere, have been saying, some people, such as the 20-year old man and the old man,,,, "They, like they are completely tired of the Federal Reserve... Sometimes, it seems to be necessary , Necessary, and as soon as possible to change some aspects of the financial "skull" that has been going on since the establishment of the FRB in 1913. Although it has obvious advantages for the owners of the US FRB, the FRB is absolutely unable to protect any items,, US dollars, Savings!!!, or any other component of the real economy, especially the ability of the elderly to at least live a comfortable life according to their life benefits, according to the time saved by their work... For the two so-called political parties, This alone is sufficient. Otherwise, with all due respect, the serious possibility of revolution or some kind of civil war will increase, and, to be sure, this is not a race war, but a "class" war... ...Just want to add, if I am the current oligarch,,, I would definitely want to fucking do my best, at least try to improve the recently well-known equity increment...very good work, can help Those who are willing to work.

Isn't the fixed income people the hardest hit by inflation?

IMHO, they will be sacrificed by the Fed, and it applies to asset owners.

This is what has been happening since 2019

Once they are confirmed, they will turn around. There is nothing new here.

There is news that Brainard cannot be confirmed in the Senate, so Superman J. Powell is indeed the case.

It doesn't matter, because the economy is addicted to the Fed's cracking, sometimes we will have to be indifferent.

I suspect traders now see that they can make more money when the market goes down...

But this is risky, because it's like pushing up the market at the end of the year...

It is almost impossible to predict the decision of the committee and its timing. People can read the market, but unfortunately, internal knowledge is where money is made. All this is because the Fed and other cabal management forces manage these markets.

Excellent writing as usual, but especially on this subject. Powell is a scum, and most banks and the heads of the Fed on Wall Street are also scumbags.

Be sure to like these one percent jumps!

I don't want to anger the feather of the leader of Wolf Street, but my cynical mood tells me that this is nothing more than a political drama, with the two biggest pigeons living in the Federal Reserve. If the market really takes them seriously, they will return to their original positions. I doubt it. One thing that did happen was that Biden locked in stocks and barrels by keeping Powell in possession of inflation. The only way true austerity can happen is that massive voter inflation has politically hit the scammers in Congress.

All these things are really interesting to read. You need to remind yourself who owns and supports the Fed-banks have 12 regional FRBs, the rich support the Fed, and the Fed takes care of the banks and the rich (including many members of Congress).

And those people don't want too much inflation. They are afraid of it. They accept a little inflation. But massive inflation stifled their paper wealth in dollars. These people are now yelling at the Fed, while consumers are yelling at the government.

No one wants Argentine-style inflation. You can't borrow money in local currency because the 30-50% annual inflation makes it useless, and no one wants to borrow money. Turkey is also going through this process now.

When you let inflation run out of control, this is what you get. The wealthy people in Argentina and Turkey have almost zero assets denominated in local currencies. They know better. This is why the Fed will not allow inflation to go so far.

But the Fed has lost control of inflation, Wolf. They continue to print until today. Some things did not add up. Can you imagine a paramedic showing up at the scene of a terrible head collision, just looking around and saying "We will be back in 6 months and we will take good care of these dead" guys. "This is what they are doing now. So their idea of ​​taking this seriously is not only ridiculous but also fictitious.

To use your analogy, the Fed is classifying, dealing with the most important cases first. We can fix inflation (BB) in 15 minutes

The inflation we have experienced has widened the gap between the rich and the poor, and for large wealth holders, the relative requirements for goods and services have become even sweeter. Why will higher inflation not continue this trend?

There are other factions whose main motivation is not only the book value they hold, such as the most influential faction in foreign policy institutions. In any case, they will live well, and some of them will be more interested in geopolitics.

a) "But​​a lot of inflation has killed their paper wealth in dollars."

b) "No one wants Argentine-style inflation. You can't borrow money in local currency, because 30-50% of the annual inflation makes it useless, and no one wants to borrow money." ———— —————————————

a) In the case of equity, inflation contributes to the underlying assets of dollar-denominated wealth, and if leverage is involved, it is easy to repay debt.

b) When central banks flood the world with cheap money, why can't they borrow in local currency? Why not keep doing this? This has been the script for some time, and as inflation increases, those with sufficient connections continue to borrow through non-recourse loans.

Assuming a high inflation rate, many people would be happy to borrow as much money as a loan under the corporate veil to buy leveraged assets.

"B) Why can't you borrow money in local currency"

Maybe as Wolfe pointed out, because "no one wants to lend it"? :)

If you think the Federal Reserve is not good, then in Australia, our Reserve Bank (RBA) is even bigger than the Federal Reserve.

Although the RBA may be less generous than the Fed, the RBA has made a hasty "commitment" and will not raise interest rates until 2024!

In the context of the United States, this seems untenable. Small economies must follow the actions of large economies to a certain extent. Even if the Australian dollar inflation is not too bad at the moment, once there is a substantial interest rate difference between the US and the Australian dollar, the situation will get worse.

I expect the Reserve Bank of Australia to enforce its commitments.

What we have got for 30 years is "Always low interest rates! Great!" These are not the words of the Governor of the Bank of Australia, but the words of his political masters. Any interest rate hike will overthrow this incompetent government.

"We can't have that right now, can we, old friend?" "No, Minister." "This is the optics of all this." "Yes, Minister."

It will not be a long-term problem for Australia. When you defend Taiwan, China will invade Darwin.

Then China got its ass. 60 US nuclear-powered submarines can deal with this problem alone.

If there is a clue in all these Taiwan conversations, it is a complete lack of understanding of the most difficult military task: amphibious invasion. In normal land warfare, it is considered to be the basic requirement for a 3:1 defense advantage. If invaded from the sea, it rises to 10:1. This is the minimum value.

Look at a globe. Oz is 2,000 miles from China. D-Day spans 30 miles, completely controlling the ocean and the air, and unexpectedly, because the distance is so short, they can leave in the dark and arrive at dawn.

In the highly unlikely event that China tried to invade Oz, no one got there.

The central bank is your biggest concern in Australia right now. You have a situation in the Third Reich.

They did not attempt to overthrow the government. Regarding the failure of Western democracies, let alone English-speaking countries, no one can approach the failure of the United States.

Don't want to reply to the Chinese invasion of Oz?

1) Dr. JP's estimated net worth is: 55 million U.S. dollars. JP may liquidate his stock and renewable energy portfolio to please Elizabeth Fangs. 2) Between 2019 and 2020, the proportion of landlords who charge 90% or more of rent dropped by 30%. 3) 10% of landlords charge less than half of their annual rent. In mid-2020, landlord income fell by 20%. 4) Small owners (1-5 units) are the most vulnerable. 5) A wealthy New York landlord with 3 units, each with more than $1 million, may have 1 or 2 zombie ledger pages that cannot be removed or replaced, with bones in the throat. 6) The small owner temporarily pays the mortgage loan to the shadow bank. They stagnated in payment and maintenance. 7) The price of houses for sale in 2020 has risen by more than 10%. 8) Thanks to government support, most deportations ended up in settlements. The real problem lies in the non-expulsion free zone. 9) At the next turning point, will JP be on the side of the landlord or the tenant?

"Dedicated to putting working Americans at the center of my efforts"

This is refreshing. I hope I can believe it. Because Powell has been erroneously focusing on low interest rates that promote better employment... a record number of job vacancies have been created. A fool's errand.

The resulting inflation swept the working class and caused so much damage. Raising 1/4 pt every 6 months will not do this. That would be stupid.

This means that the Fed is political. If you want to help working people, then you can run a sound monetary policy. Since Nixon cut the last connection with golf, has the Fed helped the plight of working people? Do not. All proceeds go to asset holders and the political class.

Terrible wiring. I apologize. Golf = gold I became as incomprehensible as Michael Engel

You just can’t read because of a typo (me too). The Engel of OTOH is usually impenetrable.

Wolf They seem to reveal the decline in QE purchases...

However, is there a public reinvestment plan for maturing securities? In my opinion, the decision to reinvest as the maturity date matures and to what extent to reinvest seems to be almost as important as the posture of quantitative easing.

What they did with "downsizing" was to slow down the pace of balance sheet growth. Until mid-November, the balance increased at a rate of 120 billion U.S. dollars per month. From mid-November to mid-December, it will increase by $90 billion, and so on. By mid-2020, it will stop increasing (the end of QE) unless the reduction accelerates, in which case the balance sheet will stop increasing faster.

The reinvestment of maturing securities is part of this. If they do not reinvest, the size of the balance sheet may decline at a rate of 100 billion to 200 billion U.S. dollars per month.

This is what I said elsewhere, and I will repeat it again:

In the next few weeks, this will become apparent in U.S. Treasury bonds.

It takes 2-3 months for changes in the direction of MBS to register, because the Fed buys them in the TBA (to be announced) market, these transactions take 2-3 months to settle, and the Fed records these transactions at the time of settlement. At the same time, MBS generated a large amount of principal payments for the Fed (which reduced its balance sheet), which it tried to replace with new purchases. So MBS has formed this jagged line on the chart, and it will take a while to see the change in direction.

We have experienced this before, and we know how it works and how the Fed does it.

So the answer to my question is "Is there a public reinvestment plan for maturing securities?" Yes... They did not announce a reduction in reinvestment and will continue to reinvest in full when the securities expire. Thank you. I remember Bernanke saying that when the Fed decides to normalize interest rates (haha), the Fed will no longer invest in maturing securities, thereby reducing its holdings. Obviously this is not the case. This is indeed a gentle and weak strategy to reduce the growth rate.

Imagine what life would be like if people could not speak and were judged based on their behavior. I think we will find that many people really just do nothing to cash in their salary.

There are many people here who make predictions and diagnoses about the Fed and what will happen next...Where should you invest to take advantage of the Fed's next move?

Of course, I am not a prophet. I temporarily rebalanced from stocks to cash, and I am paying attention to this situation. In the near term, liquidity is always good. Bonds may suffer capital losses. I think a lot of asset prices (especially financial assets, and of course real estate) float on the shaky basis of bailout funds and over-optimism: they have inflated (in asset bubbles). Coupled with the Fed's comments and changes, it could mean volatility at best. I am trying to build a future investment thesis while remaining patient. Loose currency may mean "all bubbles", so the price (and the currency itself) may be hit hard, and if enough panic spreads to the decline, it won't be a one-time purchase (and at the same time everywhere). So there is cash and patience here. The word "inflation"! It won't let me subconsciously escape into overbought assets for the first time. Those who bought before the drawdown will be cleared.

Saying that's not the case...symbols to be determined...load on the truck.

I now see where trust and value are widely dispersed, across assets and institutions (and in cheap seats, individual politicians, I believe I have ridiculous control over any of them). I don't have the habit of touting specific works, but I just read special exercises of various scenarios in a book (at the end of the book), including inflation and hyperinflation, and various reactions carried by the Federal Reserve. It appeared before this inflationary moment, but a well thought out and fun game. It assumes that continued inflation is an event that may weaken the credibility and even solvency of the central bank (including the Federal Reserve). This also means global. That is, as we know, it may constitute the "death of money." No matter what complaints I hear here, in most cases I don't see the horizon of how strange things will become, and that the present moment is completely different from the worst moment (for most people). This book raises the possibility of escaping to other "money", but does not rule out cryptocurrency.

The Fed needs to pierce the needle between bailout (maintaining current social stability and now on the path of moral hazard) and price stability. The transmission mechanism is getting weaker and weaker. Political parties dance around all of this and sell to their constituencies with rather fragile marketing/promises. I will not be angry, I want to stay calm, solve this problem mentally and stay strong.

The Fed’s reverse repurchase amounted to nearly RMB 1.6 trillion... This reduction started a long time ago, and it has only just begun.

@FF This is worth paying attention to. About a year from now, there will be a significant tightening, and they need to feed it back through fiscal stimulus measures to allow the show to continue when normal conditions begin to appear. If QE ceases to appear in the next few years, we may enter an honest financing system for the first time in more than a decade. Interest rates should naturally rise to reflect the international demand for (scarce non-printing) capital. If you are over 70, don't hold your breath.

Excerpt from an interview (a few months ago) by Mike Konczal, Director of Macroeconomic Analysis at the Roosevelt Institute, a progressive think tank:

Interviewer: "... But if you were to say something that represents [Powell]'s broader view, what would it be? KONCZAL: I think it's the unemployment gap between blacks and whites.

Interviewer: "... Mike divided Jay Powell's ways of breaking the past into four."

1. The labor market may be much tighter than previously thought (lower unemployment rate target). 2. If the Fed falls below the recovery actions (QE, etc.), the unemployment rate may be higher than expected and last longer, with serious negative effects. 3. Fully adopt a “safe and foolproof method to ensure that the bottom line of the economy in 2020 will not fall because everything is locked down, and we are in a good position to achieve substantial employment growth this year.” 4. “...Allow inflation to be higher than expected. To ensure that we have a strong economic recovery."

Interviewer: I see. Are these radical ideas? KONCZAL: I think they are radical ideas for a truly conservative institution, the Federal Reserve. And I think Powell promoted it in a gentler way, and promoted it in a more generous and better way to the daily staff.

This is where I was a bit shocked and almost fell off the treadmill I was jogging in the morning. Great, Powell, the hero of the working people.

Doesn't this guy know what effect 6% inflation and 4 dollars of gasoline will have on "workers"? Doesn't this guy know there are vacancies on record? Facts have proved that low interest rates have completely failed to get people back to work?

Recently accepted an interview with the CEO of ZipRecruiter. He said that the record vacancies were largely due to people insisting on WFH positions.

It's a bit difficult to flip the burger from home.

Powell...was very interested in "perception". He tried to make this "temporary" "perception", but that didn't work. The next step is to pretend to be "action"... This will also be a destruction, and probably a delaying tactic. Someone told me that the Fed likes the difference between federal funds and inflation. If they did, it would look like this.

Can Powell stop the spending of the Democratic Party? Or is it tampering with commodity prices? Or is the supply chain disrupted? Still driving up prices? Or the welfare queen spends all the "stimulus" money on Wal-Mart, Target and other companies? Maybe he is a magician, or...like a large pharmaceutical company, can you buy some good MSM news reports? Let's go, Jerome!

He can make borrowing more expensive so that it is impossible to buy a house or a car at the current price, so the demand will fall, and then these prices will fall to where the demand is. He can raise interest rates and throw assets into places where bond markets, stock markets, and real estate markets have collapsed. A lot of wealth accumulated in the past 20 months has disappeared. This will suppress all kinds of demand. It makes those who think they will trade stocks during the day. Or the people who have made money on cryptocurrency will return to work, which will end the labor shortage, and then the company can increase employees, which will solve many supply bottlenecks.

If the Fed wants to do this, it can. I suspect it wants to go that far. But it can.

You see, the Fed influences the economy through the credit market. On the way up and down.

Why every time 99% of people get $2.00 more from their pockets, 1% of them will find a way to steal $2.50 from them. In my memory, it started in the 1970s, when women began to work in groups. Thousands of "extra" dollars flowed into the homes of the middle class. what happened? The price of things started to skyrocket. Remember the "shortage" of natural gas in the 1970s? Increase utility and insurance rates? I certainly remember my parents complaining about these and many other things. Then the university started to increase tuition. It's happening now. I just moved from an apartment to another apartment in the same community to add a bedroom. My cable TV provider thinks that the basic service fee of US$49.99/month is not enough, so they increase it to US$99.00/month, but by stating that the federal government is providing cable TV subsidies to those in need, everything is normal. The real pig. This is sad. inflation? Just a good Econ 301 way of saying "greedy".

Hey look, the arsonist is going to fire now.

Zandi said: "A year from now, as the pandemic subsides, inflation will be low enough that we won't talk about it." "The remarks about high inflation are understandable, but they are overdone."

Mark Zandi works at Moody's. Moody's is one of the rating agencies. They rated the sub-MBS as AAA when they were stupid, which led to the financial crisis. Mark Zendi is a liar. Therefore, anything Mark Zandi says, as long as it involves truthfulness and honesty, can be ridiculed.

However...Moody's is still open

Mark Zendi still works there...

Zandi has never been convicted of fraud, so there is no evidence of fraud.

It's just allegations of lack of evidence plus overheated opinions.

Whatever his flaws may or may not be... His quotes describe the current era. It also predicted the coming year.

Now we wait to see how the prediction results.

He stated a point of view that I agree with.

Wells Fargo is still in business after defrauding millions of customers. Your measure of legitimacy has been broken.

I believe Wells Fargo also paid one of the largest fines in history for financial malfeasance. So at least a little justice prevailed.

But that's a digression...

The views expressed by Zandi are those I held before reading his quotation.

I quoted him because that point was well written.

He is just better than I can express.

Mr. is the definition of confirmation bias

So these people think that if inflation returns to 2%, will everything be all right? Let me see...6% 2%...why 8%. The 6% growth will not go away...you just added a smaller number.

https://wolfstreet.com/wp-content/uploads/2021/11/US-CPI-2021-11-10-dollar-purchasing-power-since-2000.png

Inflation is cumulative and compound... So 2% of the new figure, which has just increased by 6%, is actually a 2% figure which is larger than the previous 2%.

Because of course the price will never drop! /Second

The price has been falling.

RE: Oil, food (ask any farmer about the decline in wheat prices), wood, computers, large-screen LCD TVs, decades of wages...

In general, prices at the retail/consumer level will never fall. no way. Look at the CPI chart. As you know, the CPI completely underestimates the actual level of inflation. Economists believe that 1-2% inflation is deflation for some absurd reason. They have been called this way for the past few decades. Well, yes, the interesting thing is that the data does not support this.

It is why I commented on Powell’s absurd remarks not long ago. They said that they might want inflation to become a bit hot for a period of time to make up for a year of less than 2%...

You can't go backwards from today's numbers and make up for it with simple math, because the point you made...

Mark Zendi is a complete idiot

If interest rates rise, the hair will catch fire when shadow banking comes along with letter derivatives and securitization. Scaling will cause enough problems, but the Fed seems to be dealing with this problem as it did in the past decade. The goal is to avoid implosion again. Inflation is seen as a lesser evil. All that is left is gibberish.

The extent to which the denial here may be dwindling is shocking. I think they will have to really tighten the currency again to beat inflation, and it will take years to "control" it.

But before that, asset prices will rise and shrink significantly.

In short, to control inflation, asset deflation must occur, otherwise we are just maintaining the illusion of controlling inflation.

But many people say that based on the past ten years, this cannot happen. As interest rates rise, it will be politically difficult for the elderly to face asset deflation.

In short, money can earn real interest again, but assets will have to stop floating in a wave of really cheap funds.

I am a cash-rich person and can benefit from raising interest rates. I didn't hold my breath. The people who host the show from Congress to the Central Bank—all these people—have proven that they will not publish two articles to ordinary people.

Federal funds have never been so far below inflation...forever!

Who knew that the Fed would not follow the financial history of this country and its Federal Reserve? Because it seems that many people are sure that they will not take measures to address this kind of inflation... they are confident to go long in stocks. Some people mistakenly expected the Fed to raise interest rates quickly to deal with this unprecedented gap between federal funds and inflation. But it did not happen... and it is uncertain whether it will happen. So when others are afraid, they are relieved. This is why there must be a formula... some kind of Taylor rule.... Inflation must never exceed the Fed's interest rate, if any. Those who hear the whisper... "Don't worry, they won't raise interest rates. Stay in the stock and you will be killed by cash." There are internal tracks. A flaw in the central banking system... I think Hayek talked about this kind of insider knowledge.

Remember when ray dalio says cash is rubbish, this is your answer

Citizen A-Although I think you are right, the Fed will try to do a two-pronged approach to reduce inflation to a politically less dangerous level without excessively depleting asset values. They know that bleeding beyond a certain point = serious economic consequences, so that's it. They know that letting inflation tear = the same thing.

Therefore, we should expect them to take a middle ground. It has not been tightened and fast as needed to satisfy inflation hawks (like me, most of us here), nor has it lifted all asset inflation in the past year or so.

You seem to be suggesting a result of pure fantasy. Once inflation rages, there is only one way to stop it-to raise interest rates quickly. If you think that the Fed can maintain asset price bubbles while suppressing it a little bit, you are wrong. The cat came out of the bag.

I do not recommend any results. I am describing what they will do-try to thread the needle.

Finance, like the weather, is a chaotic system. In other words, it is not periodic, but if observed in the state space, it has a certain degree of predictability. You will see the so-called "chaotic attractor". The system will oscillate around the attractor but never repeat (we discuss again the state space described by the system's independent variables instead of time). A chaotic system can have multiple attractors. Enough energy oscillation (/-) can flip the chaotic system from one attractor to another.

We are entering a state where the Fed's balance sheet remains unchanged or slowly declines, similar to 2019. Interest rates may rise a bit until the system is hit by the next time. Depending on the magnitude of the impact, we may stay in the same attractor or be ejected to a completely different regime (for example, lose a great war).

But don't forget that stable inflation is the solution (wealth effect, making debt controllable). I am sure that the Fed wants to keep it below 10% to deal with political pressure. Let us hope that the next vibration of the system is slight.

We are entering a period of disastrous consequences.

The UST yield seems to be rising. Not long ago, the 10-year yield was 3%-July 1, 2018.

I have reservations about this inflation statement. A huge grain of salt. I haven't read all the reviews, and I don't know if it is mentioned, but a report by McKinsey & Company found that global net assets have risen from 156 tons in 2000 to 514 tons in 2020. China's wealth has been only 7T US dollars since 2000, the year before it joined the WTO. It is suspected that anyone in power wants to kill the goose that lays the eggs of "asset price inflation".

Buy rumors, sell news.

Yesterday, the US private equity giant KKR made an offer to acquire Italy's largest telecommunications company. If the move was made by a Chinese or Russian, it would be mocked as a security issue. In the new multipolar world, Europe will become an economic vassal of the United States.

This is why the Fed's spice must flow.

Timestamp. Kudo put it all there. __________________________

Wolf Richter On November 23, 2021, at 1:20 am, when it comes to the Federal Reserve, you believe in anything you want to believe. The Fed can do whatever it wants. For supporters of the Federal Reserve, this is too much, they are screaming. The Fed will eventually take action. The reduction has already begun and will end in the middle of 2022 or earlier-this means the end of quantitative easing. It was followed by a reduction in the balance sheet and interest rate hikes.

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The stolen goods are sold to law-abiding Americans by third-party vendors on large e-commerce sites that profit from them. The fight to legislate to control it.

The phenomenon of purchase surges in the early stages of rising mortgage interest rates-until they reach a magic number.

What does the suggested retail price even mean when the truck’s advertised price is higher than the suggested retail price of $10,000? Now cast a shadow on my fancy proprietary index.

"If the high risk appetite of retail investors declines quickly, there may be potentially destabilizing results." But what is going on.

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